PATHS Purpose
The systematic discovery, evaluation, optimization, and continual refinement of pathways toward desired outcomes while minimizing uncertainty, risk, waste, and irreversible error.
A structured methodology for evaluating, designing, and optimizing resilient pathways under uncertainty.


PATHS is Decision Architecture
What does this pathway actually cost?
​
P — Price
-
Objectives
-
Cost analysis
-
Opportunity cost
-
Constraints
-
Success criteria
-
Risk
-
Complexity
-
Dependencies
-
Probability of success
-
Long-term maintenance​
What is the optimal architecture?
​
A - Architecture
-
Sequencing
-
Dependencies
-
Resource allocation
-
Decision gates
-
Timing
-
Feedback loops
-
Contingencies
How will you increase confidence?
​
T - Thicken
-
Evidence gathering
-
Expert validation
-
Historical precedent
-
Alternative hypotheses
-
Simulations
-
Testing
-
Multiple independant analyses
How will you build resiliency?
​
H - Hedge
-
Risk analysis
-
Failure modes
-
Sensitivity testing
-
Contingency planning
-
Alternative scenarios
-
Unknown variables
-
Hidden assumptions
-
Black swans
-
Redundancies
-
Exit strategies
How will you continuously inprove your path?
​
S - Strenthen
-
Metrics
-
Feedback loops
-
Continuous improvement
-
Adaptation
-
Evidence
-
Increase certainy
-
Continuation
-
Changes
