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PATHS Purpose

The systematic discovery, evaluation, optimization, and continual refinement of pathways toward desired outcomes while minimizing uncertainty, risk, waste, and irreversible error.

A structured methodology for evaluating, designing, and optimizing resilient pathways under uncertainty.

V.4 Dark PATHS™ Framework.png
PATHS is Decision Architecture

What does this pathway actually cost?

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P — Price

  • Objectives

  • Cost analysis

  • Opportunity cost

  • Constraints

  • Success criteria

  • Risk 

  • Complexity

  • Dependencies

  • Probability of success

  • Long-term maintenance​

What is the optimal architecture?

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A - Architecture

  • Sequencing

  • Dependencies

  • Resource allocation

  • Decision gates

  • Timing

  • Feedback loops

  • Contingencies

How will you increase confidence?

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T - Thicken

  • Evidence gathering

  • Expert validation

  • Historical precedent

  • Alternative hypotheses

  • Simulations

  • Testing

  • Multiple independant analyses

How will you build resiliency?

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H - Hedge

  • Risk analysis

  • Failure modes

  • Sensitivity testing

  • Contingency planning

  • Alternative scenarios

  • Unknown variables

  • Hidden assumptions

  • Black swans

  • Redundancies

  • Exit strategies

How will you continuously inprove your path?

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S - Strenthen

  • Metrics

  • Feedback loops

  • Continuous improvement

  • Adaptation

  • Evidence

  • Increase certainy

  • Continuation

  • Changes

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